Value betting is a comparison between two numbers: the probability implied by the book’s price, and the probability you can defend. If your number is not written down, you do not have a value bet — you have a hunch priced at 1.91. This page is the conversion arithmetic, the overround, a +EV worked ticket, and the cashier constraints that decide whether a theoretical edge is withdrawable.
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* 18+ Only. Terms & Conditions apply. Sponsored recommendation. Please gamble responsibly.Implied probability from decimal and American prices
Decimal: implied probability = 1 / decimal. Decimal 2.50 implies 1 / 2.50 = 0.40 = 40.0%. Decimal 1.80 implies 1 / 1.80 = 0.5556 = 55.56%. Decimal 1.15 implies 1 / 1.15 = 0.8696 = 86.96%.
American positives: implied = 100 / (American + 100). +150 implies 100 / 250 = 40.0%, the same as 2.50 decimal. American negatives: implied = |American| / (|American| + 100). −110 implies 110 / 210 = 52.38%. −110 / −110 on a two-way market is the usual US spread quote; both sides cannot be 52.38% in a fair world, which is the overround.
Overround (vig) on a two-way market
A fair coin would be 2.00 and 2.00, implied 50% + 50% = 100%. A commercial book more often shows 1.91 and 1.91. Sum: 1/1.91 + 1/1.91 = 0.5236 + 0.5236 = 1.0472 = 104.72%. The extra 4.72% is the hold you pay if you bet both sides over a long sample. Break-even closing-line value has to clear that juice, not merely “beat the open.”
On −110 / −110 the same hold is 52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76%. The two formats agree. If you shop a 1.95 versus 1.91 on the same side, you buy 51.28% implied instead of 52.36% — 1.08 percentage points of juice saved before any model runs.
Expected value with a labelled ticket
EV = (p × profit) − ((1 − p) × stake). Stake €100 at decimal 2.20. Profit if win = €120. Implied by the book = 1 / 2.20 = 45.45%. Your model prints 52.0%. EV = (0.52 × €120) − (0.48 × €100) = €62.40 − €48.00 = +€14.40, or 14.4% of stake. That +€14.40 is a model output. If true p is 45%, EV flips to (0.45 × €120) − (0.55 × €100) = €54 − €55 = −€1.00.
The favourite trap: decimal 1.15, stake €100, profit €15. If the side wins 80% of the time, EV = (0.80 × €15) − (0.20 × €100) = €12 − €20 = −€8.00. “Likely to win” and “positive EV” are different sentences. Recency bias (one prior result) and ignoring market moves (steam you are late to) are how that 80% estimate appears in a notebook without a sample.
Closing line value as the audit
You will not know p. You can know whether you beat the close. If you take 2.20 and the market closes 2.05, you bought 45.45% versus a close of 48.78% — you beat the close by 3.33 points. Over hundreds of bets, CLV is the cheapest audit of a model. One +EV screenshot is not. Line shopping matters because a 30 s delay on a steam move can erase a 2% edge before the slip confirms; that is an execution cost, same family as the 5 s to 10 s live-acceptance window in the in-play checklist.
Staking the edge without Kelly theatre
A 14.4% EV ticket is not a 14.4% stake. See fractional Kelly. On a €1,000 roll, a 1% flat unit is €10; quarter Kelly on a small edge is often in that band. The +€14.40 EV figure is per €100 staked in the example, not a request to bet €100 because the spreadsheet is green.
Fiat cashier, rollover, payout, licence
An edge you cannot withdraw is a ledger curiosity. This desk names Visa, Mastercard, Skrill, Neteller, and SEPA/bank transfer only. 22Bet’s rules page lists Visa/Mastercard and Skrill/Neteller and requires the same method for withdrawals. Confirm SEPA on the live cashier for your locale. Third-party payment instruments are refused in those rules.
Wager example, arithmetic not a live promo: €70 deposit + €70 bonus, 6× on deposit+bonus = €840 turnover. If the bonus excludes “value” closing-line bets or caps max odds at 1.50, the +EV ticket at 2.20 may not qualify. Read the weighting table. Public 22Bet wiki copy also describes a 1.10 minimum-odds wager on deposits before withdrawal — re-read the live sentence.
Payout timing from 22Bet pages (desk read 11 September 2026): rules — requests processed within 5 business days, 24/7 processing. FAQ — e-wallet approval no more than 15 minutes then instant credit; cards up to 7 business days. Skrill/Neteller are the faster fiat pair in that FAQ; Visa/Mastercard ride the longer card rail. SEPA follows bank-transfer settlement, not the e-wallet 15 min line.
Licence: 22Bet’s public news wiki states Curaçao licensing for 22bet.com (TechSolutions Group N.V.). Open the seal. This desk does not invent a number.
Cons / limitations
- A 1.15 favourite that wins 80% of the time is still −€8.00 EV per €100 despite looking safe, so “likely” is not a value filter.
- A 4.72% overround on 1.91/1.91 two-way markets is paid on round-trips; CLV must beat that juice, not only the opening screenshot.
- A 30 s delay on a steam move can delete a 2% modelled edge before confirmation, and a bonus 6× rollover can exclude the 2.20 ticket that created the edge.
Desk metrics (11 September 2026)
- Conversions used: 2.50 → 40.0%; 1.80 → 55.56%; −110 → 52.38%.
- +EV worked ticket: €100 at 2.20, p = 52%, EV = +€14.40 (14.4%).
- Overround: 1.91/1.91 → 104.72%.
- Wager example: €70 + €70 at 6× = €840 turnover.
- Payout copy: 5 business days; 15 min e-wallet approval; cards up to 7 business days.
- Fiat rails: Visa, Mastercard, Skrill, Neteller, SEPA.
FAQ
Does beating the close prove +EV on one bet?
No. CLV is a sample audit. One ticket can beat the close and still lose.
Should I convert American odds every time?
Yes, if that is the posted format. −110 is 52.38%, not “a small favourite.”
What does the Hub hop provide?
A 22Bet sportsbook landing so you can record the live decimal and the cashier rails. It is not a model. 18+.
Record the live decimal on 22Bet before you convert implied probability: 22Bet sportsbook via FoxyBetting.